Background To develop a sensitive and clinically applicable risk assessment tool identifying coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients with a high risk of mortality at hospital admission. This model would assist frontline clinicians in optimizing medical treatment with limited resources. Methods 6415 patients from seven hospitals in Wuhan city were assigned to the training and testing cohorts. A total of 6351 patients from another three hospitals in Wuhan, 2169 patients from outside of Wuhan, and 553 patients from Milan, Italy were assigned to three independent validation cohorts. A total of 64 candidate clinical variables at hospital admission were analyzed by random forest and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) analyses. Results Eight factors, namely, Oxygen saturation, blood Urea nitrogen, Respiratory rate, admission before the date the national Maximum number of daily new cases was reached, Age, Procalcitonin, C-reactive protein (CRP), and absolute Neutrophil counts, were identified as having significant associations with mortality in COVID-19 patients. A composite score based on these eight risk factors, termed the OURMAPCN-score, predicted the risk of mortality among the COVID-19 patients, with a C-statistic of 0.92 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.90-0.93). The hazard ratio for all-cause mortality between patients with OURMAPCN-score >11 compared with those with scores <= 11 was 18.18 (95% CI 13.93-23.71; p < .0001). The predictive performance, specificity, and sensitivity of the score were validated in three independent cohorts. Conclusions The OURMAPCN score is a risk assessment tool to determine the mortality rate in COVID-19 patients based on a limited number of baseline parameters. This tool can assist physicians in optimizing the clinical management of COVID-19 patients with limited hospital resources.
基金:
Special Foundation for Emergency Research on Prevention and Control of COVID-19 of Guangdong Province [2020B1111330003]; National Key RAMP;D Program of China [2016YFF0101504, 2019YFC2004700, 2020YFC0845500]; National Science Foundation of China [81630011, 81970364, 81970070, 81970011, 81870171, 81570412]; Hubei Science and Technology Support Project [2019BFC582, 2018BEC473, 2017BEC001]; Medical flight plan of Wuhan University; COVID-19 funds of Lombardia Region; CARIPLO; Fondazione Umberto Veronesi
语种:
外文
被引次数:
WOS:
PubmedID:
中科院(CAS)分区:
出版当年[2020]版:
大类|3 区医学
小类|3 区医学:内科4 区医学:研究与实验
最新[2025]版:
大类|4 区医学
小类|3 区医学:内科4 区医学:研究与实验
JCR分区:
出版当年[2019]版:
Q2MEDICINE, GENERAL & INTERNALQ3MEDICINE, RESEARCH & EXPERIMENTAL
最新[2023]版:
Q1MEDICINE, GENERAL & INTERNALQ3MEDICINE, RESEARCH & EXPERIMENTAL
第一作者单位:[1]Wuhan Univ, Renmin Hosp, Sch Basic Med Sci, Dept Cardiol, Wuhan, Hubei, Peoples R China[2]Wuhan Univ, Inst Model Anim, 169 Donghu Rd, Wuhan 430071, Peoples R China
通讯作者:
通讯机构:[1]Wuhan Univ, Renmin Hosp, Sch Basic Med Sci, Dept Cardiol, Wuhan, Hubei, Peoples R China[2]Wuhan Univ, Inst Model Anim, 169 Donghu Rd, Wuhan 430071, Peoples R China[4]Wuhan Univ, Med Sci Res Ctr, Zhongnan Hosp, 169 Donghu Rd, Wuhan 430071, Peoples R China[33]Guangdong Pharmaceut Univ, Guangdong Metab Dis Res Ctr Integrated Chinese &, Minist Educ China, Guangdong TCM Key Lab Metab Dis, Guangzhou, Guangdong, Peoples R China[34]Guangdong Pharmaceut Univ, Key Lab Glucolipid Metab Disorder, Guangdong TCM Key Lab Metab Dis, Minist Educ China, Guangzhou, Guangdong, Peoples R China[35]Guangdong Pharmaceut Univ, Inst Chinese Med, 280 Wai Huan Dong Rd, Guangzhou 510006, Guangdong, Peoples R China[36]Univ Calif Los Angeles, Dept Anesthesiol, David Geffen Sch Med, CHS 37-200J, Los Angeles, CA 90095 USA[37]Univ Calif Los Angeles, Dept Physiol & Med, David Geffen Sch Med, CHS 37-200J, Los Angeles, CA 90095 USA[38]Univ Calif Los Angeles, Dept Cardiovasc Res Labs, David Geffen Sch Med, 37-200J, Los Angeles, CA 90095 USA[*1]Wuhan Univ, Dept Cardiol, Renmin Hosp, 99 Zhangzhidong Rd, Wuhan 430060, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式(GB/T 7714):
Chen Ze,Chen Jing,Zhou Jianghua,et al.A risk score based on baseline risk factors for predicting mortality in COVID-19 patients[J].CURRENT MEDICAL RESEARCH AND OPINION.2021,37(6):917-927.doi:10.1080/03007995.2021.1904862.
APA:
Chen, Ze,Chen, Jing,Zhou, Jianghua,Lei, Fang,Zhou, Feng...&Li, Hongliang.(2021).A risk score based on baseline risk factors for predicting mortality in COVID-19 patients.CURRENT MEDICAL RESEARCH AND OPINION,37,(6)
MLA:
Chen, Ze,et al."A risk score based on baseline risk factors for predicting mortality in COVID-19 patients".CURRENT MEDICAL RESEARCH AND OPINION 37..6(2021):917-927