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A risk score based on baseline risk factors for predicting mortality in COVID-19 patients

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单位: [1]Wuhan Univ, Renmin Hosp, Sch Basic Med Sci, Dept Cardiol, Wuhan, Hubei, Peoples R China [2]Wuhan Univ, Inst Model Anim, 169 Donghu Rd, Wuhan 430071, Peoples R China [3]Wuhan Inst Technol, Sch Math & Phys, Wuhan, Hubei, Peoples R China [4]Wuhan Univ, Med Sci Res Ctr, Zhongnan Hosp, 169 Donghu Rd, Wuhan 430071, Peoples R China [5]Wuhan Univ, Dept Hepatobiliary & Pancreat Surg, Zhongnan Hosp, Wuhan, Hubei, Peoples R China [6]Wuhan Univ, Eye Ctr, Renmin Hosp, Wuhan, Hubei, Peoples R China [7]Wuhan Seventh Hosp, Infect Dept, Wuhan, Hubei, Peoples R China [8]Ninth Hosp Wuhan City, Wuhan, Hubei, Peoples R China [9]Huanggang Cent Hosp, Dept Gen Surg, Huanggang, Peoples R China [10]Ezhou Cent Hosp, Dept Gen Surg, Ezhou, Peoples R China [11]Cent Hosp Wuhan, Huazhong Univ Sci & Technol, Tongji Med Coll, Dept Cardiol, Wuhan, Hubei, Peoples R China [12]Xiantao First Peoples Hosp, Dept Stomatol, Xiantao, Peoples R China [13]Wuhan Univ, Dept Urol, Wuhan Hosp 3, Wuhan, Hubei, Peoples R China [14]Wuhan Univ, Dept Urol, Tongren Hosp, Wuhan, Hubei, Peoples R China [15]Cent Hosp Enshi Tujia & Miao Autonomous Prefectur, Enshi, Peoples R China [16]First Peoples Hosp Jingmen Affiliated Hubei Minzu, Dept Neurol, Jingmen, Peoples R China [17]First Peoples Hosp Jingmen Affiliated Hubei Minzu, Dept Orthoped, Jingmen, Peoples R China [18]Changjiang Univ, Dept Hepatobiliary Surg, Affiliated Hosp 1, Jingzhou, Peoples R China [19]Jingzhou Cent Hosp, Dept Hepatobiliary Surg, Jingzhou, Peoples R China [20]Xianning Cent Hosp, Dept Hepatobiliary & Pancreat Surg, Xianning, Hubei, Peoples R China [21]Hubei Univ Arts & Sci, Xiangyang Cent Hosp, Affiliated Hosp, Xiangyang, Peoples R China [22]Suizhou Cent Hosp, Dept Hepatobiliary & Pancreat Surg, Hubei Med Coll, Suizhou, Peoples R China [23]China Three Gorges Univ, Dept Cardiol, Coll Clin Med Sci 1, Yichang, Peoples R China [24]China Three Gorges Univ, Yichang Cent Peoples Hosp, Yichang, Peoples R China [25]China Three Gorges Univ, Inst Cardiovasc Dis, Yichang, Peoples R China [26]Wuhan Hosp Tradit Chinese & Western Med, Dept Neurol, Wuhan First Hosp, Wuhan, Hubei, Peoples R China [27]IRCCS, Humanitas Clin & Res Hosp, Milan, Italy [28]Humanitas Univ, Dept Biomed Sci, Milan, Italy [29]Huazhong Univ Sci & Technol,Tongji Hosp,Tongji Med Coll,Div Cardiothorac & Vasc Surg,Wuhan,Hubei,Peoples R China [30]Wuhan Univ, Dept Neonatol, Renmin Hosp, Wuhan, Hubei, Peoples R China [31]Wuhan Third Hosp, Dept Gastroenterol, Wuhan, Hubei, Peoples R China [32]Wuhan Univ, Tongren Hosp, Wuhan, Hubei, Peoples R China [33]Guangdong Pharmaceut Univ, Guangdong Metab Dis Res Ctr Integrated Chinese &, Minist Educ China, Guangdong TCM Key Lab Metab Dis, Guangzhou, Guangdong, Peoples R China [34]Guangdong Pharmaceut Univ, Key Lab Glucolipid Metab Disorder, Guangdong TCM Key Lab Metab Dis, Minist Educ China, Guangzhou, Guangdong, Peoples R China [35]Guangdong Pharmaceut Univ, Inst Chinese Med, 280 Wai Huan Dong Rd, Guangzhou 510006, Guangdong, Peoples R China [36]Univ Calif Los Angeles, Dept Anesthesiol, David Geffen Sch Med, CHS 37-200J, Los Angeles, CA 90095 USA [37]Univ Calif Los Angeles, Dept Physiol & Med, David Geffen Sch Med, CHS 37-200J, Los Angeles, CA 90095 USA [38]Univ Calif Los Angeles, Dept Cardiovasc Res Labs, David Geffen Sch Med, 37-200J, Los Angeles, CA 90095 USA
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关键词: COVID-19 risk score modeling mortality in-hospital

摘要:
Background To develop a sensitive and clinically applicable risk assessment tool identifying coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients with a high risk of mortality at hospital admission. This model would assist frontline clinicians in optimizing medical treatment with limited resources. Methods 6415 patients from seven hospitals in Wuhan city were assigned to the training and testing cohorts. A total of 6351 patients from another three hospitals in Wuhan, 2169 patients from outside of Wuhan, and 553 patients from Milan, Italy were assigned to three independent validation cohorts. A total of 64 candidate clinical variables at hospital admission were analyzed by random forest and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) analyses. Results Eight factors, namely, Oxygen saturation, blood Urea nitrogen, Respiratory rate, admission before the date the national Maximum number of daily new cases was reached, Age, Procalcitonin, C-reactive protein (CRP), and absolute Neutrophil counts, were identified as having significant associations with mortality in COVID-19 patients. A composite score based on these eight risk factors, termed the OURMAPCN-score, predicted the risk of mortality among the COVID-19 patients, with a C-statistic of 0.92 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.90-0.93). The hazard ratio for all-cause mortality between patients with OURMAPCN-score >11 compared with those with scores <= 11 was 18.18 (95% CI 13.93-23.71; p < .0001). The predictive performance, specificity, and sensitivity of the score were validated in three independent cohorts. Conclusions The OURMAPCN score is a risk assessment tool to determine the mortality rate in COVID-19 patients based on a limited number of baseline parameters. This tool can assist physicians in optimizing the clinical management of COVID-19 patients with limited hospital resources.

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出版当年[2020]版:
大类 | 3 区 医学
小类 | 3 区 医学:内科 4 区 医学:研究与实验
最新[2025]版:
大类 | 4 区 医学
小类 | 3 区 医学:内科 4 区 医学:研究与实验
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出版当年[2019]版:
Q2 MEDICINE, GENERAL & INTERNAL Q3 MEDICINE, RESEARCH & EXPERIMENTAL
最新[2023]版:
Q1 MEDICINE, GENERAL & INTERNAL Q3 MEDICINE, RESEARCH & EXPERIMENTAL

影响因子: 最新[2023版] 最新五年平均 出版当年[2019版] 出版当年五年平均 出版前一年[2018版] 出版后一年[2020版]

第一作者:
第一作者单位: [1]Wuhan Univ, Renmin Hosp, Sch Basic Med Sci, Dept Cardiol, Wuhan, Hubei, Peoples R China [2]Wuhan Univ, Inst Model Anim, 169 Donghu Rd, Wuhan 430071, Peoples R China
通讯作者:
通讯机构: [1]Wuhan Univ, Renmin Hosp, Sch Basic Med Sci, Dept Cardiol, Wuhan, Hubei, Peoples R China [2]Wuhan Univ, Inst Model Anim, 169 Donghu Rd, Wuhan 430071, Peoples R China [4]Wuhan Univ, Med Sci Res Ctr, Zhongnan Hosp, 169 Donghu Rd, Wuhan 430071, Peoples R China [33]Guangdong Pharmaceut Univ, Guangdong Metab Dis Res Ctr Integrated Chinese &, Minist Educ China, Guangdong TCM Key Lab Metab Dis, Guangzhou, Guangdong, Peoples R China [34]Guangdong Pharmaceut Univ, Key Lab Glucolipid Metab Disorder, Guangdong TCM Key Lab Metab Dis, Minist Educ China, Guangzhou, Guangdong, Peoples R China [35]Guangdong Pharmaceut Univ, Inst Chinese Med, 280 Wai Huan Dong Rd, Guangzhou 510006, Guangdong, Peoples R China [36]Univ Calif Los Angeles, Dept Anesthesiol, David Geffen Sch Med, CHS 37-200J, Los Angeles, CA 90095 USA [37]Univ Calif Los Angeles, Dept Physiol & Med, David Geffen Sch Med, CHS 37-200J, Los Angeles, CA 90095 USA [38]Univ Calif Los Angeles, Dept Cardiovasc Res Labs, David Geffen Sch Med, 37-200J, Los Angeles, CA 90095 USA [*1]Wuhan Univ, Dept Cardiol, Renmin Hosp, 99 Zhangzhidong Rd, Wuhan 430060, Peoples R China
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