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Development and validation of prediction model for early warning of ovarian metastasis risk of endometrial carcinoma

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单位: [1]Key Laboratory of Cancer Invasion and Metastasis, Ministry of Education, Department of Gynecology, National Clinical Research Center for Obstetrical and Gynecological Diseases, Tongji Hospital, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, China. [2]Department of Breast Surgery, Hubei Cancer Hospital, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Hubei Provincial Clinical Research Center for Breast Cancer, Wuhan Clinical Research Center for Breast Cancer, Wuhan, China.
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关键词: endometrial carcinoma machine learning ovarian metastasis prediction risk

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Ovarian metastasis of endometrial carcinoma (EC) patients not only affects the decision of the surgeon, but also has a fatal impact on the fertility and prognosis of patients. This study aimed build a prediction model of ovarian metastasis of EC based on machine learning algorithm for clinical diagnosis and treatment management guidance. We retrospectively collected 536 EC patients treated in Hubei Cancer Hospital from January 2017 to October 2022 and 487 EC patients from Tongji Hospital (January 2017 to December 2020) as an external validation queue. The random forest model, gradient elevator model, support vector machine model, artificial neural network model (ANNM), and decision tree model were used to build ovarian metastasis prediction model for EC patients. The predictive efficacy of 5 machine learning models was evaluated by receiver operating characteristic curve and decision curve analysis. For screening of candidate predictors of ovarian metastasis of EC, the degree of tumor differentiation, lymph node metastasis, CA125, HE4, Alb, LH can be used as a potential predictor of ovarian metastasis prediction model in EC patients. The effectiveness of the prediction model constructed by the 5 machine learning algorithms was between (area under curve [AUC]: 0.729, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.674-0.784) and (AUC: 0.899, 95% CI: 0.844-0.954) in the training set and internal verification set, respectively. Among them, the ANNM was equipped with the best prediction effectiveness (training set: AUC: 0.899, 95% CI: 0.844-0.954) and (internal verification set: AUC: 0.892, 95% CI: 0.837-0.947). The prediction model of ovarian metastasis of EC patients based on machine learning algorithm can achieve satisfactory prediction efficiency, among which ANNM is the best, which can be used to guide clinicians in diagnosis and treatment and improve the prognosis of EC patients.Copyright © 2023 the Author(s). Published by Wolters Kluwer Health, Inc.

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出版当年[2022]版:
大类 | 4 区 医学
小类 | 4 区 医学:内科
最新[2025]版:
大类 | 4 区 医学
小类 | 4 区 医学:内科
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出版当年[2021]版:
Q3 MEDICINE, GENERAL & INTERNAL
最新[2023]版:
Q2 MEDICINE, GENERAL & INTERNAL

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第一作者单位: [1]Key Laboratory of Cancer Invasion and Metastasis, Ministry of Education, Department of Gynecology, National Clinical Research Center for Obstetrical and Gynecological Diseases, Tongji Hospital, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, China.
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通讯机构: [2]Department of Breast Surgery, Hubei Cancer Hospital, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Hubei Provincial Clinical Research Center for Breast Cancer, Wuhan Clinical Research Center for Breast Cancer, Wuhan, China. [*1]Department of Breast Surgery, Hubei CancerHospital, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology,Hubei Provincial Clinical Research Center for Breast Cancer, Wuhan ClinicalResearch Center for Breast Cancer, No. 116 Zhuo Daoquan South Road, Wuhan,Hubei 430079, China
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