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A nomogram for predicting the in-hospital risk of recurrence among patients with minor non-cardiac stroke

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单位: [1]Shanxi Med Univ, Hosp 1, Dept Neurol, 85 Jiefang South Rd, Taiyuan, Shanxi, Peoples R China [2]Shanxi Med Univ, Tongji Shanxi Hosp, Dept Neurol, Shanxi Acad Med Sci,Shanxi Bethune Hosp,Hosp 3, Taiyuan, Peoples R China [3]Huazhong Univ Sci & Technol, Tongji Hosp, Tongji Med Coll, Wuhan, Peoples R China [4]Shanxi Med Univ, Gen Hosp TISCO, Dept Neurol, Taiyuan, Peoples R China [5]Zhejiang Univ, Affiliated Hosp 2, Dept Cardiol, Sch Med, Hangzhou, Peoples R China [6]Shanxi Med Univ, Tongji Shanxi Hosp, Shanxi Bethune Hosp, Shanxi Acad Med Sci,Hosp 3,Dept Radiol, Taiyuan, Peoples R China
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关键词: Minor stroke in-hospital stroke recurrence nomogram prediction model

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Background Patients with minor stroke suffer a substantial risk of further recurrences, especially in the first two weeks. We aimed to develop and validate a prognostic nomogram to predict in-hospital stroke recurrence among patients with acute minor stroke. Methods A total of 1326 patients with minor non-cardiac stroke (NIHSS) <= 5) from three centers were divided into development cohort (1016 patients from two centers) and validation cohort (310 patients from another center). Recurrent stroke was defined as a new ischemic stroke. A logistic regression model was employed to develop the nomogram to predict in-hospital stroke recurrence in patients with minor stroke using demographic, medical and imaging information. We then validated the nomogram externally. The predictive discrimination and calibration of the nomogram were assessed in the development and validation cohorts by area under the curve (AUC) and calibration plots. Results During a median length of stay of 12 days, stroke recurrence occurred in 34 patients (3.3%). Predictors of in-hospital recurrence included prior history of transient ischemic attack, baseline NIHSS score, multiple infarctions, and carotid stenosis. The clinical and imaging-based nomogram B demonstrated adequate calibration and discrimination (AUC = 0.777), which was validated among 273 patients in a separate validation cohort (AUC = 0.753). Our clinical-imaging based nomogram was determined to be superior to the clinical-based nomogram and the RRE90 score in terms of discrimination. Conclusion A prognostic nomogram that integrates clinical and imaging information to predict the in-hospital risk of stroke recurrence among patients after acute minor stroke was constructed and validated externally. The nomogram demonstrated adequate calibration and discrimination in both the development and validation cohort.

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出版当年[2021]版:
大类 | 4 区 医学
小类 | 3 区 医学:内科 4 区 医学:研究与实验
最新[2025]版:
大类 | 4 区 医学
小类 | 3 区 医学:内科 4 区 医学:研究与实验
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出版当年[2020]版:
Q2 MEDICINE, GENERAL & INTERNAL Q3 MEDICINE, RESEARCH & EXPERIMENTAL
最新[2023]版:
Q1 MEDICINE, GENERAL & INTERNAL Q3 MEDICINE, RESEARCH & EXPERIMENTAL

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第一作者单位: [1]Shanxi Med Univ, Hosp 1, Dept Neurol, 85 Jiefang South Rd, Taiyuan, Shanxi, Peoples R China [2]Shanxi Med Univ, Tongji Shanxi Hosp, Dept Neurol, Shanxi Acad Med Sci,Shanxi Bethune Hosp,Hosp 3, Taiyuan, Peoples R China [3]Huazhong Univ Sci & Technol, Tongji Hosp, Tongji Med Coll, Wuhan, Peoples R China
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