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Establishment of Routine Clinical Indicators-Based Nomograms for Predicting the Mortality in Patients With COVID-19

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单位: [1]Huo Shen Shan Hosp, Wuhan, Peoples R China [2]Med Team Army Med Univ, Jin Yin Tan Hosp, Wuhan, Peoples R China [3]Army Med Univ, Dept Gastroenterol, Xinqiao Hosp, Chongqing, Peoples R China [4]Army Med Univ, Xinqiao Hosp, Chongqing, Peoples R China [5]Taikang Tongji Hosp, Wuhan, Peoples R China [6]Chongqing Med Univ, Affiliated Hosp 1, Dept Resp & Crit Care Med, Chongqing, Peoples R China [7]Army Med Univ, Xinqiao Hosp, Dept Resp & Crit Care Med, Chongqing, Peoples R China [8]Army Med Univ, Xinan Hosp, Dept Emergency, Chongqing, Peoples R China [9]Army Med Univ, Xinqiao Hosp, Dept Hematol, Chongqing, Peoples R China [10]Army Med Univ, Xinqiao Hosp, Dept Neurol, Chongqing, Peoples R China [11]Army Med Univ, Xinqiao Hosp, Dept Endocrinol, Chongqing, Peoples R China [12]Army Med Univ, Xinqiao Hosp, Dept Cardiol, Chongqing, Peoples R China
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关键词: COVID-19 mortality prediction nomogram the MuLBSTA score

摘要:
This study aimed to establish and validate the nomograms to predict the mortality risk of patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) using routine clinical indicators. This retrospective study included a development cohort enrolled 2,119 hospitalized patients with COVID-19 and a validation cohort included 1,504 patients with COVID-19. The demographics, clinical manifestations, vital signs, and laboratory tests of the patients at admission and outcome of in-hospital death were recorded. The independent factors associated with death were identified by a forward stepwise multivariate logistic regression analysis and used to construct the two prognostic nomograms. The nomogram 1 was a full model to include nine factors identified in the multivariate logistic regression and nomogram 2 was built by selecting four factors from nine to perform as a reduced model. The nomogram 1 and nomogram 2 showed better performance in discrimination and calibration than the Multilobular infiltration, hypo-Lymphocytosis, Bacterial coinfection, Smoking history, hyper-Tension and Age (MuLBSTA) score in training. In validation, nomogram 1 performed better than nomogram 2 for calibration. We recommend the application of nomogram 1 in general hospitals which provide robust prognostic performance though more cumbersome; nomogram 2 in the out-patient, emergency department, and mobile cabin hospitals, which depend on less laboratory examinations to make the assessment more convenient. Both the nomograms can help the clinicians to identify the patients at risk of death with routine clinical indicators at admission, which may reduce the overall mortality of COVID-19.

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出版当年[2020]版:
大类 | 3 区 医学
小类 | 3 区 医学:内科
最新[2025]版:
大类 | 3 区 医学
小类 | 3 区 医学:内科
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出版当年[2019]版:
Q1 MEDICINE, GENERAL & INTERNAL
最新[2023]版:
Q1 MEDICINE, GENERAL & INTERNAL

影响因子: 最新[2023版] 最新五年平均 出版当年[2019版] 出版当年五年平均 出版前一年[2018版] 出版后一年[2020版]

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第一作者单位: [1]Huo Shen Shan Hosp, Wuhan, Peoples R China [2]Med Team Army Med Univ, Jin Yin Tan Hosp, Wuhan, Peoples R China [3]Army Med Univ, Dept Gastroenterol, Xinqiao Hosp, Chongqing, Peoples R China
通讯作者:
通讯机构: [1]Huo Shen Shan Hosp, Wuhan, Peoples R China [2]Med Team Army Med Univ, Jin Yin Tan Hosp, Wuhan, Peoples R China [3]Army Med Univ, Dept Gastroenterol, Xinqiao Hosp, Chongqing, Peoples R China [7]Army Med Univ, Xinqiao Hosp, Dept Resp & Crit Care Med, Chongqing, Peoples R China
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