Clinical and inflammatory features based machine learning model for fatal risk prediction of hospitalized COVID-19 patients: results from a retrospective cohort study
单位:[1]Department of Laboratory Medicine,Tongji Hospital,Tongji Medical College,Huazhong University of Science and Technology,Wuhan,China华中科技大学同济医学院附属同济医院检验科[2]Department of Occupational and Environmental Health, State Key Laboratory of Environmental Health (Incubating), School of Public Health, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, China
Objectives: To appraise effective predictors for COVID-19 mortality in a retrospective cohort study. Methods: A total of 1270 COVID-19 patients, including 984 admitted in Sino French New City Branch (training and internal validation sets randomly split at 7:3 ratio) and 286 admitted in Optical Valley Branch (external validation set) of Wuhan Tongji hospital, were included in this study. Forty-eight clinical and laboratory features were screened with LASSO method. Further multi-tree extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) machine learning-based model was used to rank importance of features selected from LASSO and subsequently constructed death risk prediction model with simple-tree XGBoost model. Performances of models were evaluated by AUC, prediction accuracy, precision, and F1 scores. Results: Six features, including disease severity, age, levels of high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP), lactate dehydrogenase (LDH), ferritin, and interleukin-10 (IL-10), were selected as predictors for COVID-19 mortality. Simple-tree XGBoost model conducted by these features can predict death risk accurately with >90% precision and >85% sensitivity, as well as F1 scores >0.90 in training and validation sets. Conclusion: We proposed the disease severity, age, serum levels of hs-CRP, LDH, ferritin, and IL-10 as significant predictors for death risk of COVID-19, which may help to identify the high-risk COVID-19 cases. KEY MESSAGES A machine learning method is used to build death risk model for COVID-19 patients. Disease severity, age, hs-CRP, LDH, ferritin, and IL-10 are death risk factors. These findings may help to identify the high-risk COVID-19 cases.
第一作者单位:[1]Department of Laboratory Medicine,Tongji Hospital,Tongji Medical College,Huazhong University of Science and Technology,Wuhan,China[2]Department of Occupational and Environmental Health, State Key Laboratory of Environmental Health (Incubating), School of Public Health, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, China
通讯作者:
通讯机构:[2]Department of Occupational and Environmental Health, State Key Laboratory of Environmental Health (Incubating), School of Public Health, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, China[*1]Department of Laboratory Medicine,Tongji Hospital of Tongji Medical College,Huazhong University of Science and Technology,13 Hangkong Rd,Wuhan 430030,China[*2]Department of Occupational and Environmental Health, School of Public Health, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430030, China
推荐引用方式(GB/T 7714):
guan xin,zhang bo,fu ming,et al.Clinical and inflammatory features based machine learning model for fatal risk prediction of hospitalized COVID-19 patients: results from a retrospective cohort study[J].ANNALS OF MEDICINE.2021,53(1):257-266.doi:10.1080/07853890.2020.1868564.
APA:
guan,xin,zhang,bo,fu,ming,li,mengying,yuan,xu...&lu,yanjun.(2021).Clinical and inflammatory features based machine learning model for fatal risk prediction of hospitalized COVID-19 patients: results from a retrospective cohort study.ANNALS OF MEDICINE,53,(1)
MLA:
guan,xin,et al."Clinical and inflammatory features based machine learning model for fatal risk prediction of hospitalized COVID-19 patients: results from a retrospective cohort study".ANNALS OF MEDICINE 53..1(2021):257-266