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Clinical and inflammatory features based machine learning model for fatal risk prediction of hospitalized COVID-19 patients: results from a retrospective cohort study

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单位: [1]Department of Laboratory Medicine,Tongji Hospital,Tongji Medical College,Huazhong University of Science and Technology,Wuhan,China [2]Department of Occupational and Environmental Health, State Key Laboratory of Environmental Health (Incubating), School of Public Health, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, China
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关键词: COVID-19 machine learning fatal risk extreme gradient boosting

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Objectives: To appraise effective predictors for COVID-19 mortality in a retrospective cohort study. Methods: A total of 1270 COVID-19 patients, including 984 admitted in Sino French New City Branch (training and internal validation sets randomly split at 7:3 ratio) and 286 admitted in Optical Valley Branch (external validation set) of Wuhan Tongji hospital, were included in this study. Forty-eight clinical and laboratory features were screened with LASSO method. Further multi-tree extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) machine learning-based model was used to rank importance of features selected from LASSO and subsequently constructed death risk prediction model with simple-tree XGBoost model. Performances of models were evaluated by AUC, prediction accuracy, precision, and F1 scores. Results: Six features, including disease severity, age, levels of high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP), lactate dehydrogenase (LDH), ferritin, and interleukin-10 (IL-10), were selected as predictors for COVID-19 mortality. Simple-tree XGBoost model conducted by these features can predict death risk accurately with >90% precision and >85% sensitivity, as well as F1 scores >0.90 in training and validation sets. Conclusion: We proposed the disease severity, age, serum levels of hs-CRP, LDH, ferritin, and IL-10 as significant predictors for death risk of COVID-19, which may help to identify the high-risk COVID-19 cases. KEY MESSAGES A machine learning method is used to build death risk model for COVID-19 patients. Disease severity, age, hs-CRP, LDH, ferritin, and IL-10 are death risk factors. These findings may help to identify the high-risk COVID-19 cases.

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出版当年[2020]版:
大类 | 3 区 医学
小类 | 3 区 医学:内科
最新[2025]版:
大类 | 2 区 医学
小类 | 2 区 医学:内科
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出版当年[2019]版:
Q1 MEDICINE, GENERAL & INTERNAL
最新[2023]版:
Q1 MEDICINE, GENERAL & INTERNAL

影响因子: 最新[2023版] 最新五年平均 出版当年[2019版] 出版当年五年平均 出版前一年[2018版] 出版后一年[2020版]

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第一作者单位: [1]Department of Laboratory Medicine,Tongji Hospital,Tongji Medical College,Huazhong University of Science and Technology,Wuhan,China [2]Department of Occupational and Environmental Health, State Key Laboratory of Environmental Health (Incubating), School of Public Health, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, China
通讯作者:
通讯机构: [2]Department of Occupational and Environmental Health, State Key Laboratory of Environmental Health (Incubating), School of Public Health, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, China [*1]Department of Laboratory Medicine,Tongji Hospital of Tongji Medical College,Huazhong University of Science and Technology,13 Hangkong Rd,Wuhan 430030,China [*2]Department of Occupational and Environmental Health, School of Public Health, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430030, China
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