Background & Aims: Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the leading cause of death in patients with chronic hepatitis. In this international collaboration, we sought to develop a global universal HCC risk score to predict the HCC development for patients with chronic hepatitis. Methods: A total of 17,374 patients, comprising 10,578 treated Asian patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB), 2,510 treated Caucasian patients with CHB, 3,566 treated patients with hepatitis C virus (including 2,489 patients with cirrhosis achieving a sustained virological response) and 720 patients with non-viral hepatitis (NVH) from 11 international prospective observational cohorts or randomised controlled trials, were divided into a training cohort (3,688 Asian patients with CHB) and 9 validation cohorts with different aetiologies and ethnicities (n = 13,686). Results: We developed an HCC risk score, called the aMAP score (ranging from 0 to 100), that involves only age, male, albumin-bilirubin and platelets. This metric performed excellently in assessing HCC risk not only in patients with hepatitis of different aetiologies, but also in those with different ethnicities (C-index: 0.82-0.87). Cut-off values of 50 and 60 were best for discriminating HCC risk. The 3- or 5-year cumulative incidences of HCC were 0-0.8%, 1.5-4.8%, and 8.1-19.9% in the low- (n = 7,413, 43.6%), medium- (n = 6,529, 38.4%), and high-risk (n = 3,044, 17.9%) groups, respectively. The cut-off value of 50 was associated with a sensitivity of 85.7-100% and a negative predictive value of 99.3-100%. The cut-off value of 60 resulted in a specificity of 56.6-95.8% and a positive predictive value of 6.6-15.7%. Conclusions: This objective, simple, reliable risk score based on 5 common parameters accurately predicted HCC development, regardless of aetiology and ethnicity, which could help to establish a risk score-guided HCC surveillance strategy worldwide. Lay summary: In this international collaboration, we developed and externally validated a simple, objective and accurate prognostic tool (called the aMAP score), that involves only age, male, albumin-bilirubin and platelets. The aMAP score (ranged from 0 to 100) satisfactorily predicted the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development among over 17,000 patients with viral and non-viral hepatitis from 11 global prospective studies. Our findings show that the aMAP score had excellent discrimination and calibration in assessing the 5-year HCC risk among all the cohorts irrespective of aetiology and ethnicity. (C) 2020 European Association for the Study of the Liver. Published by Elsevier B.V.
基金:
Local Innovative and Research Teams Project of Guangdong Pearl River Talents Program [2017BT01S131]; National Natural Science Foundation of China [81700530, 81772187]; National Major Science and Technology Projects of China [2018ZX10301202, 2017ZX10202202]; MRC [MR/K010239/1] Funding Source: UKRI
第一作者单位:[1]Southern Med Univ, Nanfang Hosp, Dept Infect Dis, State Key Lab Organ Failure Res,Guangdong Prov Ke, Guangzhou, Peoples R China
通讯作者:
通讯机构:[1]Southern Med Univ, Nanfang Hosp, Dept Infect Dis, State Key Lab Organ Failure Res,Guangdong Prov Ke, Guangzhou, Peoples R China[31]Fdn IRCCS Ca Granda Osped Maggiore Policlin, Div Gastroenterol & Hepatol, CRC AM & A Migliavacca Ctr Liver Dis, Milan, Italy[32]Univ Milan, Dept Pathophysiol & Transplantat, Milan, Italy[*1]Southern Med Univ, Nanfang Hosp, Dept Infect Dis, Guangzhou 510515, Peoples R China[*2]Univ Milan, Fdn IRCCS Ca Granda Osped Maggiore Policlin, CRC AM & A Migliavacca Ctr Liver Dis, Div Gastroenterol & Hepatol, Milan, Italy
推荐引用方式(GB/T 7714):
Fan Rong,Papatheodoridis George,Sun Jian,et al.aMAP risk score predicts hepatocellular carcinoma development in patients with chronic hepatitis[J].JOURNAL OF HEPATOLOGY.2020,73(6):1368-1378.doi:10.1016/j.jhep.2020.07.025.
APA:
Fan, Rong,Papatheodoridis, George,Sun, Jian,Innes, Hamish,Toyoda, Hidenori...&Hou, Jinlin.(2020).aMAP risk score predicts hepatocellular carcinoma development in patients with chronic hepatitis.JOURNAL OF HEPATOLOGY,73,(6)
MLA:
Fan, Rong,et al."aMAP risk score predicts hepatocellular carcinoma development in patients with chronic hepatitis".JOURNAL OF HEPATOLOGY 73..6(2020):1368-1378