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aMAP risk score predicts hepatocellular carcinoma development in patients with chronic hepatitis

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单位: [1]Southern Med Univ, Nanfang Hosp, Dept Infect Dis, State Key Lab Organ Failure Res,Guangdong Prov Ke, Guangzhou, Peoples R China [2]Natl & Kapodistrian Univ Athens, Laiko Gen Hosp, Dept Gastroenterol, Med Sch, Athens, Greece [3]Glasgow Caledonian Univ, Sch Hlth & Life Sci, Glasgow, Lanark, Scotland [4]Ogaki Municipal Hosp, Dept Gastroenterol & Hepatol, Ogaki, Japan [5]Shanghai Jiao Tong Univ, Ruijin Hosp, Dept Infect Dis, Sch Med, Shanghai, Peoples R China [6]Gilead Sci, Foster City, CA USA [7]Natl & Kapodistrian Univ Athens, Dept Hyg Epidemiol & Med Stat, Med Sch, Athens, Greece [8]Nottingham Univ Hosp NHS Trust, NIHR Nottingham Biomed Res Ctr, Nottingham, England [9]Univ Nottingham, Nottingham, England [10]Gifu Kyoritsu Univ, Dept Nursing, Ogaki, Japan [11]Jilin Univ, Hosp 1, Dept Hepatol, Changchun, Peoples R China [12]Thessalia Univ, Dept Internal Med, Med Sch, Larisa, Greece [13]Univ Oxford, Nuffield Dept Med, Peter Medawar Bldg Pathogen Res, Oxford, England [14]Univ Oxford, Oxford NIHR Biomed Res Ctr, Oxford, England [15]Fourth Mil Med Univ, Tangdu Hosp, Ctr Infect Dis, Xian, Peoples R China [16]Univ Ankara, Dept Gastroenterol, Med Sch, Ankara, Turkey [17]Glasgow Royal Infirm, Glasgow, Lanark, Scotland [18]China Med Univ, Dept Infect Dis, Shengjing Hosp, Shenyang, Peoples R China [19]Univ Clin Leipzig, Div Hepatol, Clin & Polyclin Gastroenterol Hepatol Infect Dis, Leipzig, Germany [20]Royal Infirm Edinburgh NHS Trust, Edinburgh, Midlothian, Scotland [21]Huazhong Univ Sci & Technol, Tongji Hosp, Tongji Med Coll, Dept Gastroenterol, Wuhan, Peoples R China [22]Hosp Gen Univ Valle Hebron & Ciberehd, Barcelona, Spain [23]Hosp U Puerta de Hierro, IDIPHIM CIBERehd, Madrid, Spain [24]Shanxi Med Univ, Dept Infect Dis, Hosp 1, Taiyuan, Peoples R China [25]Univ Hlth Network, Toronto Western & Gen Hosp, Liver Clin, Toronto, ON, Canada [26]Hangzhou YITU Healthcare Technol Co Ltd, Big Data Res & Biostat Ctr, Hangzhou, Peoples R China [27]Guangzhou Eighth Peoples Hosp, Guangzhou, Peoples R China [28]Peking Univ, Hepatol Inst, Peoples Hosp, Beijing, Peoples R China [29]Capital Med Univ, Beijing Friendship Hosp, Liver Res Ctr, Beijing, Peoples R China [30]Univ Liverpool, Dept Mol & Clin Canc Med, 2nd Floor Sherrington Bldg,Ashton St, Liverpool L69 3GE, Merseyside, England [31]Fdn IRCCS Ca Granda Osped Maggiore Policlin, Div Gastroenterol & Hepatol, CRC AM & A Migliavacca Ctr Liver Dis, Milan, Italy [32]Univ Milan, Dept Pathophysiol & Transplantat, Milan, Italy
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关键词: HCC Risk score Hepatitis B virus Hepatitis C virus Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease

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Background & Aims: Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the leading cause of death in patients with chronic hepatitis. In this international collaboration, we sought to develop a global universal HCC risk score to predict the HCC development for patients with chronic hepatitis. Methods: A total of 17,374 patients, comprising 10,578 treated Asian patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB), 2,510 treated Caucasian patients with CHB, 3,566 treated patients with hepatitis C virus (including 2,489 patients with cirrhosis achieving a sustained virological response) and 720 patients with non-viral hepatitis (NVH) from 11 international prospective observational cohorts or randomised controlled trials, were divided into a training cohort (3,688 Asian patients with CHB) and 9 validation cohorts with different aetiologies and ethnicities (n = 13,686). Results: We developed an HCC risk score, called the aMAP score (ranging from 0 to 100), that involves only age, male, albumin-bilirubin and platelets. This metric performed excellently in assessing HCC risk not only in patients with hepatitis of different aetiologies, but also in those with different ethnicities (C-index: 0.82-0.87). Cut-off values of 50 and 60 were best for discriminating HCC risk. The 3- or 5-year cumulative incidences of HCC were 0-0.8%, 1.5-4.8%, and 8.1-19.9% in the low- (n = 7,413, 43.6%), medium- (n = 6,529, 38.4%), and high-risk (n = 3,044, 17.9%) groups, respectively. The cut-off value of 50 was associated with a sensitivity of 85.7-100% and a negative predictive value of 99.3-100%. The cut-off value of 60 resulted in a specificity of 56.6-95.8% and a positive predictive value of 6.6-15.7%. Conclusions: This objective, simple, reliable risk score based on 5 common parameters accurately predicted HCC development, regardless of aetiology and ethnicity, which could help to establish a risk score-guided HCC surveillance strategy worldwide. Lay summary: In this international collaboration, we developed and externally validated a simple, objective and accurate prognostic tool (called the aMAP score), that involves only age, male, albumin-bilirubin and platelets. The aMAP score (ranged from 0 to 100) satisfactorily predicted the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development among over 17,000 patients with viral and non-viral hepatitis from 11 global prospective studies. Our findings show that the aMAP score had excellent discrimination and calibration in assessing the 5-year HCC risk among all the cohorts irrespective of aetiology and ethnicity. (C) 2020 European Association for the Study of the Liver. Published by Elsevier B.V.

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出版当年[2019]版:
大类 | 1 区 医学
小类 | 1 区 胃肠肝病学
最新[2025]版:
大类 | 1 区 医学
小类 | 1 区 胃肠肝病学
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出版当年[2018]版:
Q1 GASTROENTEROLOGY & HEPATOLOGY
最新[2023]版:
Q1 GASTROENTEROLOGY & HEPATOLOGY

影响因子: 最新[2023版] 最新五年平均 出版当年[2018版] 出版当年五年平均 出版前一年[2017版] 出版后一年[2019版]

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第一作者单位: [1]Southern Med Univ, Nanfang Hosp, Dept Infect Dis, State Key Lab Organ Failure Res,Guangdong Prov Ke, Guangzhou, Peoples R China
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通讯机构: [1]Southern Med Univ, Nanfang Hosp, Dept Infect Dis, State Key Lab Organ Failure Res,Guangdong Prov Ke, Guangzhou, Peoples R China [31]Fdn IRCCS Ca Granda Osped Maggiore Policlin, Div Gastroenterol & Hepatol, CRC AM & A Migliavacca Ctr Liver Dis, Milan, Italy [32]Univ Milan, Dept Pathophysiol & Transplantat, Milan, Italy [*1]Southern Med Univ, Nanfang Hosp, Dept Infect Dis, Guangzhou 510515, Peoples R China [*2]Univ Milan, Fdn IRCCS Ca Granda Osped Maggiore Policlin, CRC AM & A Migliavacca Ctr Liver Dis, Div Gastroenterol & Hepatol, Milan, Italy
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