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Establishing a model for predicting the outcome of COVID-19 based on combination of laboratory tests

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单位: [1]Department of Laboratory Medicine, Tongji Hospital, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, China [2]Department of Cardiothoracic and Vascular Surgery, Tongji Hospital, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, China
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关键词: COVID-19 Laboratory indicators Outcome Prediction model

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Introduction: There are currently no satisfactory methods for predicting the outcome of Coronavirus Disease-2019 (COVID-19). The aim of this study is to establish a model for predicting the prognosis of the disease. Methods: The laboratory results were collected from 54 deceased COVID-19 patients on admission and before death. Another 54 recovered COVID-19 patients were enrolled as control cases. Results: Many laboratory indicators, such as neutrophils, AST, gamma-GT, ALP, LDH, NT-proBNP, Hs-cTnT, PT, APTT, D-dimer, IL-2R, IL-6, IL-8, IL-10, TNF-alpha, CRP, ferritin and procalcitonin, were all significantly increased in deceased patients compared with recovered patients on admission. In contrast, other indicators such as lymphocytes, platelets, total protein and albumin were significantly decreased in deceased patients on admission. Some indicators such as neutrophils and pmcalcitonin, others such as lymphocytes and platelets, continuously increased or decreased from admission to death in deceased patients respectively. Using these indicators alone had moderate performance in differentiating between recovered and deceased COVID-19 patients. A model based on combination of four indicators (P = 1/[1 + e(-(-2.658+0.587 x neutrophils - 2.087 x lymphocytes) (- 0.01 x platelets+0.004 x IL-2R))]) showed good performance in predicting the death of COVID-19 patients. When cutoff value of 0.572 was used, the sensitivity and specificity of the prediction model were 90.74% and 94.44%, respectively. Conclusions: Using the current indicators alone is of modest value in differentiating between recovered and deceased COVID-19 patients. A prediction model based on combination of neutrophils, lymphocytes, platelets and IL-2R shows good performance in predicting the outcome of COVID-19.

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出版当年[2019]版:
大类 | 2 区 医学
小类 | 2 区 传染病学 2 区 公共卫生、环境卫生与职业卫生
最新[2025]版:
大类 | 3 区 医学
小类 | 3 区 传染病学 3 区 公共卫生、环境卫生与职业卫生
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出版当年[2018]版:
Q1 PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH Q1 INFECTIOUS DISEASES
最新[2023]版:
Q1 INFECTIOUS DISEASES Q1 PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH

影响因子: 最新[2023版] 最新五年平均 出版当年[2018版] 出版当年五年平均 出版前一年[2017版] 出版后一年[2019版]

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第一作者单位: [1]Department of Laboratory Medicine, Tongji Hospital, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, China
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通讯机构: [1]Department of Laboratory Medicine, Tongji Hospital, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, China [2]Department of Cardiothoracic and Vascular Surgery, Tongji Hospital, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, China
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