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Liver failure determines the outcome in patients of acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF): comparison of APASL ACLF research consortium (AARC) and CLIF-SOFA models

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单位: [1]Inst Liver & Biliary Sci ILBS, Dept Hepatol & Transplant, New Delhi 110070, India [2]Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujib Med Univ, Dept Hepatol, Dhaka, Bangladesh [3]Post Grad Inst Med Educ & Res, Dept Hepatol, Chandigarh, India [4]Selayang Hosp, Dept Gastroenterol & Hepatol, Kepong, Malaysia [5]St John Med Coll, Dept Gastroenterol & Hepatol, Bangalore, Karnataka, India [6]Capital Med Univ, Beijing Youan Hosp, Beijing, Peoples R China [7]Huazhong Univ Sci & Technol, Tongji Hosp, Tongji Med Coll, Dept Infect Dis, Wuhan, Hubei, Peoples R China [8]Capital Med Univ, Beijing Friendship Hosp, Liver Res Ctr, Beijing, Peoples R China [9]Bombay Hosp & Med Res Ctr, Dept Gastroenterol & Hepatol, Bombay, Maharashtra, India [10]Christian Med Coll & Hosp, Dept Gastrointestinal Sci, Vellore, Tamil Nadu, India [11]Aga Khan Univ Hosp, Dept Med, Karachi, Pakistan [12]Hallym Univ, Chuncheon Sacred Heart Hosp, Ctr Liver & Digest Dis, Chunchon, Gangwon Do, South Korea [13]Nork Clin Hosp Infect Dis, Dept Hepatol, Yerevan, Armenia [14]Natl Univ Hlth Syst, Dept Gastroenterol & Hepatol, Singapore, Singapore [15]Dayanand Med Coll, Dept Gastroenterol, Ludhiana, Punjab, India [16]Univ Indonesia, Div Hepatol, Jakarta, Indonesia [17]Sindh Inst Urol & Transplantat, Dept Hepatogastroenterol, Karachi, Pakistan [18]Egyptian Liver Res Inst & Hosp, Dept Internal Med, Cairo, Egypt [19]Cardinal Santos Med Ctr, Dept Hepatol, Manila, Philippines [20]Ankara Univ, Sch Med, Dept Gastroenterol, Ankara, Turkey [21]Cardinal Santos Med Ctr, Manila, Philippines [22]Inst Translat Hepatol, Beijing, Peoples R China [23]Mitford Hosp, Sir Salimur Rehman Med Coll, Dhaka, Bangladesh [24]Asian Inst Gastroenterol, Hyderabad, Andhra Pradesh, India [25]Univ Paris Diderot Paris 7, Labex INFLAMEX, CRI, UMR S 1149,Inserm,U1149, Paris, France [26]Inst Liver & Biliary Sci ILBS, Dept Hepatol, New Delhi 110070, India [27]Inst Liver & Biliary Sci ILBS, Dept Clin Res, New Delhi 110070, India
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关键词: Cirrhosis ACLF AARC score Organ failure Liver failure

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Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is a progressive disease associated with rapid clinical worsening and high mortality. Early prediction of mortality and intervention can improve patient outcomes. We aimed to develop a dynamic prognostic model and compare it with the existing models. A total of 1402 ACLF patients, enrolled in the APASL-ACLF Research Consortium (AARC) with 90-day follow-up, were analyzed. An ACLF score was developed in a derivation cohort (n = 480) and was validated (n = 922). The overall survival of ACLF patients at 28 days was 51.7%, with a median of 26.3 days. Five baseline variables, total bilirubin, creatinine, serum lactate, INR and hepatic encephalopathy, were found to be independent predictors of mortality, with AUROC in derivation and validation cohorts being 0.80 and 0.78, respectively. AARC-ACLF score (range 5-15) was found to be superior to MELD and CLIF SOFA scores in predicting mortality with an AUROC of 0.80. The point scores were categorized into grades of liver failure (Gr I: 5-7; II: 8-10; and III: 11-15 points) with 28-day cumulative mortalities of 12.7, 44.5 and 85.9%, respectively. The mortality risk could be dynamically calculated as, with each unit increase in AARC-ACLF score above 10, the risk increased by 20%. A score of ae<yen>11 at baseline or persisting in the first week was often seen among nonsurvivors (p = 0.001). The AARC-ACLF score is easy to use, dynamic and reliable, and superior to the existing prediction models. It can reliably predict the need for interventions, such as liver transplant, within the first week.

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出版当年[2016]版:
大类 | 4 区 医学
小类 | 4 区 胃肠肝病学
最新[2025]版:
大类 | 1 区 医学
小类 | 2 区 胃肠肝病学
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出版当年[2015]版:
Q4 GASTROENTEROLOGY & HEPATOLOGY
最新[2023]版:
Q1 GASTROENTEROLOGY & HEPATOLOGY

影响因子: 最新[2023版] 最新五年平均 出版当年[2015版] 出版当年五年平均 出版前一年[2014版] 出版后一年[2016版]

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第一作者单位: [1]Inst Liver & Biliary Sci ILBS, Dept Hepatol & Transplant, New Delhi 110070, India [26]Inst Liver & Biliary Sci ILBS, Dept Hepatol, New Delhi 110070, India
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通讯机构: [1]Inst Liver & Biliary Sci ILBS, Dept Hepatol & Transplant, New Delhi 110070, India [26]Inst Liver & Biliary Sci ILBS, Dept Hepatol, New Delhi 110070, India
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