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Development and validation of a network calculator model for safety and efficacy after pancreaticoduodenectomy in the elderly patients with pancreatic head cancer

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单位: [1]Department of Biliopancreatic Surgery, Tongji Hospital, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, China. [2]Department of Hepatopancreatobiliary Surgery, the First Affiliated Hospital of Anhui Medical University, Hefei, China. [3]Department of General Surgery, the First Affiliated Hospital, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei, China.
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关键词: calculator elderly pancreatic head cancer pancreaticoduodenectomy prediction survival

摘要:
Benefiting from increased life expectancy and improved perioperative management, more elderly patients with pancreatic head cancer (PHC) underwent pancreaticoduodenectomy (PD). However, individualized predictive models for the safety and efficacy of PD is still lacking. this study aimed to developed three safety- and efficacy-related risk calculators for elderly (> = 65 years) PHC patients.This study was designed with two research cohorts, namely, the training cohort and the validation cohort, and comprises four general steps: (1) Risk factors were analyzed for the incidence of postoperative complications, cancer-specific survival (CSS), and overall survival (OS) in the training cohort (N = 271) using logistic and Cox-regression analysis. (2) Nomograms were then plotted based on the above results. (3) The accuracy of the developed nomogram models was then verified with the validation cohort (N = 134) data using consistency index (C-index) and calibration curves. (4) We then evaluated the efficacy of these nomograms using decision curve analysis (DCA) in both the training and validation cohorts, and ultimately constructed three online calculators based on these nomograms.We identified ASA, diabetes, smoking, and lymph node invasion as predisposing risk factors for postoperative complications, and the predictive factors that affected both OS and CSS were ASA, diabetes, BMI, CA19-9 level, and tumor diameter. By integrating the above risk factors, we constructed three nomograms on postoperative complication, CSS, and OS. The C-index for complication, CSS, and OS were 0.824, 0.784, and 0.801 in the training cohort and 0.746, 0.718, and 0.708 in the validation cohort. Moreover, the validation curves and DCA demonstrated good calibration and robust compliance in both training and validation cohorts. We then developed three web calculators (https://caiming.shinyapps.io/CMCD/, https://caiming.shinyapps.io/CMCSS/, and https://caiming.shinyapps.io/CMOS/) to facilitate the use of the nomograms.The calculators demonstrated promising performance as an tool for predicting the safety and efficacy of PD in elderly PHC patients.© 2023 The Authors. Cancer Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

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出版当年[2022]版:
大类 | 3 区 医学
小类 | 3 区 肿瘤学
最新[2025]版:
大类 | 3 区 医学
小类 | 3 区 肿瘤学
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出版当年[2021]版:
Q2 ONCOLOGY
最新[2023]版:
Q2 ONCOLOGY

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第一作者单位: [1]Department of Biliopancreatic Surgery, Tongji Hospital, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, China.
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通讯机构: [1]Department of Biliopancreatic Surgery, Tongji Hospital, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, China. [*1]Department of Biliopancreatic Surgery, Tongji Hospital, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, China
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