Study Design. Retrospective analysis. Objective. The aim of this study was to develop and validate a competing-risk-based prognostic model and a nomogram for predicting the three- and five-year probability of cancer-specific death (CSD) in patients with spinal and pelvic chondrosarcoma. Summary of Background Data. The issue of competing risk has rarely been addressed and discussed in survival analysis of bone sarcoma. In addition, the Fine and Gray model, a more accurate method for survival analysis in the context of competing risk, has also been less reported in prognostic study of chondrosarcoma. Methods. A total of 623 patients with spinal or pelvic chondrosarcoma were identified from the SEER database and were divided into a training and a validation cohort. These two cohorts were used to develop and validate a prognostic model to predict the 3- and 5-year probability of CSD, considering non-CSD as competing risk. The C-index, calibration plot, and decision curve analysis were used to assess the predictive performance and clinical utility of the model. Results. Older age (subdistribution hazards ratio [SHR]: 1.02, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.01 similar to 1.03; P = 0.013), high grade (SHR: 2.68, 95% CI: 1.80 similar to 3.99; P < 0.001), regional involvement (SHR: 1.66, 95% CI: 1.06 similar to 2.58; P = 0.026), distant metastasis (SHR: 5.18, 95% CI: 3.11 similar to 8.62; P < 0.001) and radical resection (SHR: 0.38, 95% CI: 0.24 similar to 0.60; P < 0.001) were significantly associated with the incidence of CSD. These factors were used to build a competing-risk-based model and a nomogram to predict CSD. The C-index, calibration plot, and decision curve analysis indicated that the nomogram performs well in predicting CSD and is suitable for clinical use. Conclusion. A competing-risk based prognostic model is developed to predict the probability of CSD of patients with spinal and pelvic chondrosarcoma. This nomogram performs well and is suitable for clinical use.
基金:
Yellow Crane Talents Program of Wuhan City [HHYC-201601]
第一作者单位:[1]Huazhong Univ Sci & Technol,Tongji Hosp,Tongji Med Coll,Dept Orthoped,Wuhan 430030,Hubei,Peoples R China
通讯作者:
推荐引用方式(GB/T 7714):
Dong Yimin,Xie Linka,Kang Honglei,et al.A Competing Risk-based Prognostic Model to Predict Cancer-specific Death of Patients with Spinal and Pelvic Chondrosarcoma[J].SPINE.2021,46(22):E1192-E1201.doi:10.1097/BRS.0000000000004073.
APA:
Dong, Yimin,Xie, Linka,Kang, Honglei,Peng, Renpeng,Guo, Qian...&Li, Feng.(2021).A Competing Risk-based Prognostic Model to Predict Cancer-specific Death of Patients with Spinal and Pelvic Chondrosarcoma.SPINE,46,(22)
MLA:
Dong, Yimin,et al."A Competing Risk-based Prognostic Model to Predict Cancer-specific Death of Patients with Spinal and Pelvic Chondrosarcoma".SPINE 46..22(2021):E1192-E1201