Purpose To investigate the frailty status in Chinese cancer patients through establishing a novel prediction algorithm. Methods The percentage of frailty in various age groups, locations, and tumor types in Chinese cancer patients was investigated. The prediction capacity of frailty on mortality of Chinese cancer patients was analysed by the frailty index composing of routine laboratory data (FI-LAB) accessible from a blood test and calculated as the ratio of abnormal factors to 22 total variables. The establishment of a novel algorithm, MCP (mortality of cancer patients), to predict the 5-year mortality in Chinese cancer patients was accomplished and the algorithm's prediction capacity was tested in the training and validation sets using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis. Results We found that the risk of death in cancer patients can be successfully identified through FI-LAB. The univariable and multivariable Cox regression were used to evaluate the effect of frailty on death. In the 5-year follow-up, 20.6% of the 2959 participants (age = 55.8 +/- 11.7 years; 43.5% female) died, while the mean FI-LAB score in baseline was 0.23 (standard deviation = 0.13; range = 0-0.73). Frailty (after adjusting for gender, age, and other confounders) directly correlated with an increased risk of death, hazard ratio of 12.67 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 7.19, 22.31), compared to those without frailty. In addition, the MCP algorithm (MCP) = 3.678 x FI-LAB + 1.575 x sex + 1.779 x first tumor node metastasis staging, presented an area under the ROC (AUC) of 0.691 (95% CI: 0.656-0.726) and 0.648 (95% CI: 0.613-0.684) in the training and validation sets, respectively. Conclusion Frailty as defined by FI-LAB was common and indicated a significant death risk in cancer patients. Our novel developed algorithm MCP had a passable prediction capacity on 5-year MCP.
第一作者单位:[1]Zhejiang Univ, Affiliated Hosp 1, Sch Med, Dept Gastroenterol, Hangzhou, Peoples R China
通讯作者:
通讯机构:[14]Third Mil Med Univ, Daping Hosp, Dept Nutr, Chongqing, Peoples R China[15]Third Mil Med Univ, Res Inst Surg, Chongqing, Peoples R China[*1]Third Mil Med Univ, Army Med Univ, Daping Hosp, Dept Nutr, Chongqing 400042, Peoples R China[*2]Third Mil Med Univ, Army Med Univ, Res Inst Surg, Chongqing 400042, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式(GB/T 7714):
Jin Xi,Ren Yue,Shao Li,et al.Prevalence of frailty and prediction of mortality in Chinese cancer patients using a frailty index-based clinical algorithm-A multicentre study[J].CANCER MEDICINE.2021,10(18):6207-6217.doi:10.1002/cam4.4155.
APA:
Jin, Xi,Ren, Yue,Shao, Li,Guo, Zengqing,Wang, Chang...&Shi, Hanping.(2021).Prevalence of frailty and prediction of mortality in Chinese cancer patients using a frailty index-based clinical algorithm-A multicentre study.CANCER MEDICINE,10,(18)
MLA:
Jin, Xi,et al."Prevalence of frailty and prediction of mortality in Chinese cancer patients using a frailty index-based clinical algorithm-A multicentre study".CANCER MEDICINE 10..18(2021):6207-6217