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Ensemble learning for poor prognosis predictions: A case study on SARS-CoV-2

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单位: [1]UCL, Inst Hlth Informat, London, England [2]UCL, Hlth Data Res UK, London, England [3]Univ Edinburgh, Ctr Med Informat, Usher Inst, Edinburgh, Midlothian, Scotland [4]Univ Birmingham, Inst Canc & Genom Sci, Birmingham, W Midlands, England [5]Univ Birmingham, Hlth Data Res UK, Birmingham, W Midlands, England [6]Kings Coll London, Inst Psychiat, Dept Biostat & Hlth Informat, London, England [7]Univ Edinburgh, Ctr Global Hlth, Usher Inst, Edinburgh, Midlothian, Scotland [8]Peoples Liberat Army Joint Logist Support Force 9, Dept Pulm & Crit Care Med, Kunming, Yunnan, Peoples R China [9]Tongji Univ, Shanghai East Hosp, Dept Pulm & Crit Care Med, Shanghai, Peoples R China [10]Univ Edinburgh, Ctr Inflammat Res, Queens Med Res Inst, Edinburgh, Midlothian, Scotland [11]Kings Coll Hosp NHS Fdn Trust, Dept Stroke & Neurol, London, England [12]Queen Elizabeth Hosp, Dept Intens Care Med, Birmingham, W Midlands, England [13]Univ Birmingham, Birmingham Acute Care Res, Birmingham, W Midlands, England [14]Univ Hosp Birmingham NHS Fdn Trust, Inst Translat Med, Birmingham, W Midlands, England [15]Taikang Tongji Hosp,Dept Pulm & Crit Care Med,Wuhan,Peoples R China [16]Univ Edinburgh, Ctr Populat Hlth Sci, Usher Inst, Edinburgh, Midlothian, Scotland
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关键词: ensemble learning model synergy risk prediction COVID-19 decision support

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Objective: Risk prediction models are widely used to inform evidence-based clinical decision making. However, few models developed from single cohorts can perform consistently well at population level where diverse prognoses exist (such as the SARS-CoV-2 [severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2] pandemic). This study aims at tackling this challenge by synergizing prediction models from the literature using ensemble learning. Materials and Methods: In this study, we selected and reimplemented 7 prediction models for COVID-19 (coronavirus disease 2019) that were derived from diverse cohorts and used different implementation techniques. A novel ensemble learning framework was proposed to synergize them for realizing personalized predictions for individual patients. Four diverse international cohorts (2 from the United Kingdom and 2 from China; N = 5394) were used to validate all 8 models on discrimination, calibration, and clinical usefulness. Results: Results showed that individual prediction models could perform well on some cohorts while poorly on others. Conversely, the ensemble model achieved the best performances consistently on all metrics quantifying discrimination, calibration, and clinical usefulness. Performance disparities were observed in cohorts from the 2 countries: all models achieved better performances on the China cohorts. Discussion: When individual models were learned from complementary cohorts, the synergized model had the potential to achieve better performances than any individual model. Results indicate that blood parameters and physiological measurements might have better predictive powers when collected early, which remains to be confirmed by further studies. Conclusions: Combining a diverse set of individual prediction models, the ensemble method can synergize a robust and well-performing model by choosing the most competent ones for individual patients.

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出版当年[2020]版:
大类 | 2 区 管理科学
小类 | 2 区 计算机:信息系统 2 区 计算机:跨学科应用 2 区 卫生保健与服务 2 区 医学:信息
最新[2025]版:
大类 | 2 区 医学
小类 | 2 区 计算机:信息系统 2 区 计算机:跨学科应用 2 区 卫生保健与服务 2 区 图书情报与档案管理 2 区 医学:信息
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出版当年[2019]版:
Q1 MEDICAL INFORMATICS Q1 HEALTH CARE SCIENCES & SERVICES Q1 COMPUTER SCIENCE, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS Q1 COMPUTER SCIENCE, INFORMATION SYSTEMS Q1 INFORMATION SCIENCE & LIBRARY SCIENCE
最新[2023]版:
Q1 COMPUTER SCIENCE, INFORMATION SYSTEMS Q1 COMPUTER SCIENCE, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS Q1 HEALTH CARE SCIENCES & SERVICES Q1 INFORMATION SCIENCE & LIBRARY SCIENCE Q1 MEDICAL INFORMATICS

影响因子: 最新[2023版] 最新五年平均 出版当年[2019版] 出版当年五年平均 出版前一年[2018版] 出版后一年[2020版]

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第一作者单位: [1]UCL, Inst Hlth Informat, London, England [2]UCL, Hlth Data Res UK, London, England [*1]222 Euston Rd, London NW1 2DA, England
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通讯机构: [1]UCL, Inst Hlth Informat, London, England [2]UCL, Hlth Data Res UK, London, England [*1]222 Euston Rd, London NW1 2DA, England
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