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A novel online calculator to predict perioperative blood transfusion in patients undergoing liver resection for hepatocellular carcinoma: an international multicenter study

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单位: [1]Second Mil Med Univ, Naval Med Univ, Eastern Hepatobiliary Surg Hosp, Dept Hepatobiliary Surg, 225 Changhai Rd, Shanghai 200438, Peoples R China [2]Second Mil Med Univ, Naval Med Univ, Dept Clin Med, Shanghai, Peoples R China [3]Huazhong Univ Sci & Technol, Tongji Hosp, Dept Hepat Surg, Wuhan, Peoples R China [4]Univ Bologna, Dept Med & Surg Sci, Gen Surg & Transplantat Unit, Bologna, Italy [5]Chinese Univ Hong Kong, Prince Wales Hosp, Fac Med, Shatin, Hong Kong, Peoples R China [6]Icahn Sch Med Mt Sinai, Recanati Miller Transplantat Inst, Liver Canc Program, New York, NY 10029 USA [7]Ohio State Univ, Dept Surg, Wexner Med Ctr, Columbus, OH 43210 USA
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Background: To develop an easy-to-use model to predict the probability of perioperative blood transfusion (PBT) in patients undergoing liver resection for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Method: 878 patients from Eastern Hepatobiliary Surgery Hospital of Shanghai were enrolled in the training cohort, while 691 patients from Tongji Hospital of Wuhan and 364 patients from two hospitals from Europe and America served as the Eastern and Western external validation cohorts, respectively. Independent predictors of PBT were identified and used for the nomogram construction. The predictive performance of the model was assessed using the concordance index (C-index) and calibration plot, and externally validated using the two independent cohorts. This model was compared with four currently available prediction risk scores. Results: Eight preoperative variables were identified as independent predictors of PBT, which were incorporated into the new nomogram model, with a C-index of 0.833 and a well-fitted calibration plot. The nomogram performed well on the externally Eastern and Western validation cohorts (C-indexes: 0.786 and 0.777). The discriminatory ability of the nomogram was superior to the four currently available prediction scores (C-indexes: 0.833 vs. 0.671-0.770). The nomogram was programmed into an online calculator, which is available at http://www.asapcalculate.top/Cal3_en.html. Conclusion: A nomogram model, using an easy-to-access website, can be used to calculate the PBT risk and identify which patients undergoing HCC resection are at high risks of PBT and can benefit most by using blood conservation techniques.

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出版当年[2019]版:
大类 | 3 区 医学
小类 | 2 区 外科 3 区 胃肠肝病学
最新[2025]版:
大类 | 3 区 医学
小类 | 3 区 胃肠肝病学 3 区 外科
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出版当年[2018]版:
Q1 SURGERY Q2 GASTROENTEROLOGY & HEPATOLOGY
最新[2023]版:
Q1 SURGERY Q2 GASTROENTEROLOGY & HEPATOLOGY

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第一作者单位: [1]Second Mil Med Univ, Naval Med Univ, Eastern Hepatobiliary Surg Hosp, Dept Hepatobiliary Surg, 225 Changhai Rd, Shanghai 200438, Peoples R China [2]Second Mil Med Univ, Naval Med Univ, Dept Clin Med, Shanghai, Peoples R China
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