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Development and external multicenter validation of Chinese Prostate Cancer Consortium prostate cancer risk calculator for initial prostate biopsy

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单位: [1]Second Mil Med Univ, Shanghai Changhai Hosp, Dept Urol, Shanghai, Peoples R China [2]Zhejiang Univ, Sch Med, Affiliated Hosp 1, Dept Urol, Hangzhou, Zhejiang, Peoples R China [3]Shanghai Jiao Tong Univ, Sch Med, Renji Hosp, Dept Urol, Shanghai, Peoples R China [4]Huazhong Univ Sci & Technol,Tongji Med Coll,Tongji Hosp,Dept Urol,Wuhan,Peoples R China [5]Peking Univ, Hosp 3, Dept Urol, Beijing, Peoples R China
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关键词: Prostate neoplasms Biopsy Prediction Logistic regression models Chinese population

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Objective: Substantial differences exist in the relationship of prostate cancer (PCa) detection rate and prostate-specific antigen (PSA) level between Western and Asian populations. Classic Western risk calculators, European Randomized Study for Screening of Prostate Cancer Risk Calculator, and Prostate Cancer Prevention Trial Risk Calculator, were shown to be not applicable in Asian populations. We aimed to develop and validate a risk calculator for predicting the probability of PCa and high-grade PCa (defined as Gleason Score sum 7 or higher) at initial prostate biopsy in Chinese men. Materials and methods: Urology outpatients who underwent initial prostate biopsy according to the inclusion criteria were included. The multivariate logistic regression based Chinese Prostate Cancer Consortium Risk Calculator (CPCC-RC) was constructed with cases from 2 hospitals in Shanghai. Discriminative ability, calibration and decision curve analysis were externally validated in 3 CPCC member hospitals. Results: Of the 1,835 patients involved, PCa was identified in 338/924 (36.6%) and 294/911 (32.3%) men in the development and validation cohort, respectively. Multivariate logistic regression analyses showed that 5 predictors (age, logPSA, logPV, free PSA ratio, and digital rectal examination) were associated with PCa (Model 1) or high-grade PCa (Model 2), respectively. The area under the curve of Model 1 and Model 2 was 0.801 (95% CI: 0.771-0.831) and 0.826 (95% CI: 0.796-0.857), respectively. Both models illustrated good calibration and substantial improvement in decision curve analyses than any single predictors at all threshold probabilities. Higher predicting accuracy, better calibration, and greater clinical benefit were achieved by CPCC-RC, compared with European Randomized Study for Screening of Prostate Cancer Risk Calculator and Prostate Cancer Prevention Trial Risk Calculator in predicting PCa. Conclusions: CPCC-RC performed well in discrimination and calibration and decision curve analysis in external validation compared with Western risk calculators. CPCC-RC may aid in decision-making of prostate biopsy in Chinese or in other Asian populations with similar genetic and environmental backgrounds. (C) 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

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出版当年[2015]版:
大类 | 3 区 医学
小类 | 2 区 泌尿学与肾脏学 3 区 肿瘤学
最新[2025]版:
大类 | 3 区 医学
小类 | 4 区 肿瘤学 4 区 泌尿学与肾脏学
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出版当年[2014]版:
Q2 UROLOGY & NEPHROLOGY Q3 ONCOLOGY
最新[2023]版:
Q2 UROLOGY & NEPHROLOGY Q3 ONCOLOGY

影响因子: 最新[2023版] 最新五年平均 出版当年[2014版] 出版当年五年平均 出版前一年[2013版] 出版后一年[2015版]

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第一作者单位: [1]Second Mil Med Univ, Shanghai Changhai Hosp, Dept Urol, Shanghai, Peoples R China
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